Competent. Energetic. Witty. Tough.  These are four words that describe a man who is trying to become only the third African-American since Reconstruction and the first Democrat since Lloyd Benson to occupy the seat of U.S. Senator from Texas. However, in the last couple of weeks, Kirk’s campaign has been virtually invisible in regards to getting his message out. What does Ron Kirk stand for? What are his views on affirmative action? Health care reform? Vouchers?

I think Kirk is the best man for the job, but I believe he is receiving some poor advice from his campaign managers. A recent Associated Press article, questioned why Ron Kirk has run only one ad and has been out of the state so often during this critical stretch of the campaign. Kirk’s campaign spokesman, Robert Gibbs, says “This is an expensive state and we’re marshaling resources for when voters are paying attention. Most of the voters make up their minds late in the election. That’s when these things are hottest and the heaviest.” 

The focus of Mr. Gibbs is a little off. Most voters have made up their mind, but its about getting them out to the polls. The Kirk campaign has done an extremely poor job of articulating what’s at stake. For African-Americans, there is a possibility of a rollback of civil rights and affirmative action.
The Supreme Court is currently 5-4 conservative, but if the U.S. Senate turns Republican again, that means President Bush, who is in office until 2004, will likely be poised to pick a candidate for the Supreme Court who will be hostile to minorities and affirmative action. And a 6-3 conservative advantage would be definite bad news and all the progress that was obtained since the 1960s could go down the drain.

As a senator, Kirk would be in a position to “vote” on the future of America. But is this message being made, especially to Black and Hispanic citizens? No, it’s not.  Some Kirk campaign insiders may say, “stay away from that controversial issue.” Well, Kirk needs to show some conviction and common sense. Generally, Whites are split on affirmative action and any issue involving race.  However, minorities who make up nearly half the state generally support affirmative action. So it makes sense to talk about it. Kirk must understand that he can’t please all the White folks, but he must be able to connect with his base support if he is going to win. It’s just that simple. Why don’t Ron Kirk go on the hip-hop and gospel and even Hispanic radio stations and explain his views on issues that affect younger African-Americans and Hispanics? There are tens of thousands of new and young voters every year, and it seems like Kirk is totally ignoring them.

Cronyn doesn’t care about them, but Ron Kirk needs them. Go to the people, Ron. What in the hell are you waiting for?  There is so much on the line for America in general with Bush’s unpredictable “War on Terrorism” and African-Americans specifically, that Kirk needs to start taking more control of his campaign. The Texas citizens-- African-Americans specifically, REALLY don’t know Ron Kirk. We know he was a Dallas mayor, but his apparent inability to get his message across to Texas could cost him the Senate seat.

All that apparent hard work and money gone down the drain in vain. But does he have time to turn things around? His opponent, current Texas Attorney General John Cronyn, is in the “driver’s seat” and he has Kirk right where he wants him and his campaign -- back-pedaling and trying to emulate Cronyn’s style of politicking by appealing to White independents. Kirk has given many speeches to groups, and received political endorsements from contemporaries, but despite the endorsements, it will not help him get him where needs to be. In my estimation, Kirk is going to need close to three million votes to win this election, but Democrats have a hard time mustering that many votes for whatever reason. 2002 is not a presidential year, but for Blacks, it may be one of the most important elections ever. And Texas has a great opportunity to make history.

Where can Kirk make up ground? The following is a short list of counties in which he needs to have maximum turnout from: 1. Fort Bend County--Richmond, the county seat, is twenty-eight miles east-southeast of Houston and at the approximate center of the county. There are approximately 200,000+ potential voters in Fort Bend in which 20% are African-Americans, 11% percent Asian and 21% Hispanic. During the 2000 Election, Bush won this county 60% to Al Gore’s 38% and in the Senate race between Kay Bailey Hutchinson and Gene Kelly, Hutchinson won 65% to Kelly’s 34%. If I was an observer and with knowledge of what happened in Florida, these stats seem a little lopsided.

These elections in this county should reflect a more even split , but in a county in which a little more than half of the population is a racial minority, Kirk campaign observers and Kirk, a former Texas Secretary of State himself need to look into who is voting and whether his constituency is being fairly treated in this county and other counties. 2. El Paso County-- Even though this county is 78% percent of Hispanic origin, it generally votes Democratic. But there is something a little unusual about the county. It has a county population of 688,000 people according to the U.S. Census and over 400,000 are over 18, but approximately 140,000 total voters voted in the presidential election. Gore did win this county 58 to 42 percent, but Gene Kelly, the U.S. Senate Candidate in 2000 won this county, 50 to 48 percent. 3. Webb County has a total county population of 201,292 according to the census, and approximately 140,000 are over the age of 18. In the 2000 election only approximately 31,000 total voters cast a ballot for president in 2000. If I was Ron Kirk or his campaign manager, I would like to know why few voters in this rather large county aren’t going to the polls.

After what happened in Florida, one needs to look more closely at the county election supervisors. Are Black and Brown voters being discriminated against at the polls. There were reports during the Election 2000 that police blockades and ignorant poll workers kept Black and Brown voters from voting for a variety of reasons.

Our vote must be protected, and Kirk needs to assemble a staff to make sure that 254 counties are adhering to the rules and not hindering a person’s right to vote-- especially African-Americans. Additionally, there is a line of counties in north and eastern Texas that border Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma that have significant black populations. In those areas, turnout must be maximized. Has the Kirk campaign done a good job of getting on the radio stations in those areas to get his message out. No, they haven’t.

If Ron truly wants to win, he needs to cover “all his bases.” I get the impression that the former Texas Secretary of State and former mayor of Dallas is not doing the things that he needs in order to win. Texas is a big state and one can’t appeal to everybody, but Kirk should be savvy enough to appeal to his Democratic base which are White, Hispanic, African-American and Asian. 
African-Americans, who generally vote Democrat 85 to 90 percent of the time and Hispanics usually vote for Democrats nearly two thirds of the time. However, the percentage is not the most important figure, but the total number of people is. I am not a mathematician, but Texas’ minority population is approaching fifty percent.

So one would think Kirk or any Democratic candidate would have at least a shot in Texas of winning. However, Republicans have found a winning formula which has them in control of the state capitol in Austin. Why?

If you look behind some of the numbers, one can find some answers or maybe more questions.  If Kirk wants to win, then he and his campaign need to a take a course of Politics 101 of running a successful state campaign-- know your counties. And to me, Kirk and/or his campaign haven’t been doing their homework.

It’s easy to say concentrate in the big cities like his hometown Dallas or Houston or San Antonio. However, Texas has 254 counties and there are tens of counties with populations ranging from 100,000 to nearly a half million. These are the “battleground” counties where Kirk’s bid for the U.S. Senate will succeed or fail.

Of course, it would be great to win Harris County, Bexar County or Dallas County, but there are many other smaller counties with significant minority populations which could help Kirk squeak out a win. Is he trying to really win or just to look good in some political insider’s eyes? Kirk is limbo right now, despite the apparent poll numbers that say he is slightly trailing his Republican challenger.

To me it is more like a 10 to 15 point lead.  Unfortunately, Kirk is falling into the trap that most Black politicians running for state office --- how can he appeal to White independent voters. Unfortunately, Kirk and his campaign hasn’t realized that the White independent voter isn’t necessary the X factor, it is young African-American and Hispanic voters.

For Kirk to win, he needs to attract new voters-- basically voting for the first time. And to this observer’s eyes, he has done a below average job of that. Kirk is running a campaign like he is an incumbent and not truly connecting with the people of his state and it is going to cost him if he doesn’t start taking the initiative. Kirk was a shining light, but his light is slowly dimming like a flashlight that has been accidentally left on for too long.

It is October, and if Kirk thinks he is “playing it safe,” and not trying to offend anybody, then he will be in for a sobering surprise on election day.