There is a stark reality when it comes to voters and minority candidates: voters are less honest with pollsters when race is a factor. This phenomena is why some Texans are wary of declaring victory for either gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez or Senate candidate Ron Kirk.

Remember former New York City mayor David Dinkins? Going into Election Day, all the polls showed Dinkins ahead. But when the election was over, Dinkins lost. Apparently, based on turnout, it was determined that not everyone who said he or she would vote for Dinkins actually did.
That creates some uncertainty for Democrats in both the elections for Texas Governor and the U.S. Senate.

As it now stands, Kirk is neck and neck with challenger John Cornyn in the polls. Sanchez is behind Governor Rick Perry but gaining ground. But what the poll numbers don’t and can’t show is how many voters in general and Democratic voters in particular may steer clear of casting votes for the party candidates because of their race.

The reason it can’t be determined is because when it comes to race, people are not honest. If you are a Democrat, you are likely to want to think of yourself as a liberal on issues of race. Thus, you might have a hard time reconciling why you can’t vote for a Black Ron Kirk or a Brown Tony Sanchez. Thus, if you are called by a pollster who can look at a form and tell you are a stalwart Democrat, you are unlikely to tell that pollster you can’t support a Black man or a Brown man, even though they are the party standard bearers. Thus, it makes it easy for minority candidates to have inflated poll numbers, which makes calling an election tough.

However, given this reality, Blacks and Brown should be even more motivated to vote to cancel out the votes of those who can't get beyond color in casting their ballots. As the saying goes, the only poll that counts are those taken on Election Day.
(Martin is a freelance political columnist who lives in Austin.)